Sebi offers a way over FPI tax rule hurdle
India’s state-run refiners have already secured enough crude for the next two months and are in no rush to resume purchases from the Middle East even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial traffic. Local processors have been asked by Middle Eastern suppliers, including Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., to begin taking contractual volumes under long-term supply agreements, according to people familiar with the matter, who didn’t wish to be identified as the information isn’t public. The refiners, however, have yet to commit, they said. The global oil market is zeroed in on the waterway after the US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal this week that should allow transits to resume. During the conflict, energy shipments initially came to a near-total halt — with the strait subject to a double blockade by both Tehran and Washington — but they are now starting to recover as ships trickle through.
The biggest question in the global copper market right now is whether US President Donald Trump will move ahead with tariffs on refined copper. The decision, expected within weeks, could shape the next phase of trade flows, inventories and prices. As the market awaits a Commerce Secretary review due at the end of June that will inform Trump’s decision, traders are watching for signals on whether to unwind their copper positions or double down on bets that US prices will continue marching higher. “Everyone is waiting before we can step in to do relevant trades,” said Nicole Ni, vice general manager at Eagle Metal International Pte, a trading firm that sells copper to fabricators. “This policy has a significant impact on copper prices.”
Brent crude steadied on Friday but remained set for a more than 8% weekly decline as traders weighed fading U.S.-Iran truce prospects after talks were called off and Israel escalated attacks in Lebanon. Brent crude futures were little changed at $79.78 a barrel by 0820 GMT. The front-month July contract for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude, which expires on Monday, rose nearly $1 or 1.3% to $77.59 a barrel. The more actively traded WTI August contract was up 13 cents at $75.98 a barrel. Switzerland said U.S. talks with Iranian negotiators on a pact to end the Middle East conflict would not take place on Friday, as Vice President JD Vance dropped his travel plans, adding to uncertainty over the prospects for a lasting truce.
The Strait of Hormuz is back in business after more than 100 days of disruption, with over 60 million barrels of crude set to leave the pipeline. Following a US-Iran peace deal, one of the world's most important oil routes is set to reopen, releasing millions of barrels of crude that had been stuck inside the Persian Gulf. However, the return of crude shipments back into the market could create a problem that looked unthinkable just weeks ago an oversupplied market. For Asian refiners that spent recent weeks rushing to secure alternative supplies, the sudden return of those cargoes could quickly turn concerns over shortages into worries about too much oil on the way.
Raw material expenses of listed manufacturing companies surged 18.3% year-on-year in the January-March quarter of FY26, highlighting growing input cost pressures amid global uncertainties. The raw material-to-sales ratio rose to 58.5% in Q4 FY26 from 57.5% in the preceding quarter, signalling that a larger share of revenues was being absorbed by input costs, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data released on Tuesday. The increase in input costs came despite a strong improvement in sales. Aggregate sales growth of 3,266 listed private non-financial companies accelerated to 13.9% year-on-year in Q4 FY26 from 10.1% in the previous quarter, while manufacturing companies recorded sales growth of 14.5%, driven by automobiles, electrical machinery and non-ferrous metals.
India is weighing a China-style policy to mandate domestic refiners to build and maintain significantly larger crude oil inventories to cushion the country against future supply disruptions such as those triggered by the Iran war, according to people familiar with the matter. The proposed stockpile would be in addition to the roughly 15 days of crude that refiners hold at their facilities for operational needs. The proposal is at a preliminary stage and key details have yet to be finalised, the people said, adding that no final decision has been taken on its implementation. Refiners are likely to push back against the plan, citing the substantial cost of building new storage facilities and filling them with crude oil, said one of the persons, who did not wish to be identified. If refiners are required to double their inventory levels to cover about 30 days of national demand, they would need to hold a combined 150 million barrels of crude, based on India's consumption of 5 million barrels per day.
India's rice stocks in government warehouses rose 15 per cent year-on-year to a record high at the start of June, while wheat inventories climbed to their highest level in five years following strong procurement from farmers, according to official data.
Oil supplies could normalise and prices fall below $80 per barrel within two-three weeks if the planned US-Iran agreement is signed on Friday and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened without any restrictions, said executives at Indian refineries. The US and Iran have agreed on a deal, scheduled to be signed on Friday, to end all military hostilities, remove the US naval blockade of the Islamic Republic and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The two countries have also given themselves another 60 days to conclude negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme. Brent crude fell 5% on Monday to $83 per barrel following the announcement.
India's gold imports rose by 34 per cent year-on-year to USD 3.41 billion in May, driven by high prices of the precious metal, while silver imports dipped 86.65 per cent during the month, according to the commerce ministry data. The government increased import duty on precious metals from 6 per cent to 15 per cent effective May 13. According to the data, silver imports dipped to USD 75.57 million during the month under review from USD 566.22 million in May 2025. The rise in gold imports in May pushed the country's trade deficit (difference between imports and exports) to USD 28.21 billion. The price of the yellow metal is hovering near Rs 1,60,000 per 10 grams (inclusive of all taxes) in the national capital. Silver was priced at around Rs 2.60 lakh per Kg.
A record 45% of the reserve managers surveyed by the World Gold Council, up 2 percentage points from a year ago, expect to increase their own institutions' gold holdings over the next 12 months, the international organization said on Tuesday. The majority — 54% of 74 central banks that responded to the WGC's annual survey, conducted between February 5 and May 19 — said their holdings would remain unchanged, while 1% anticipated a decline. Most responses were received after the start of the Middle East conflict in late February, which triggered a rally in oil prices and drove gold prices down. Central banks remain keen on gold, and the recent price fall has not changed their minds, said Shaokai Fan, head of the central banks sector at the WGC. The U.S. and Iran agreed over the weekend on terms to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a 3% rise in gold prices on Monday. [GOL/]
Global crude oil prices have retreated sharply from their wartime highs, offering relief to consumers and businesses alike. However, according to market expert Vandana Hari from Vanda Insights it is too early to declare victory, as significant uncertainties continue to surround the reopening of key energy routes and the broader geopolitical settlement.
Amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, exports of basmati rice and tea to West Asia have come to a halt. Exporters said the Strait of Hormuz is shut and three vessels loaded with a total of 100,000 tonnes of basmati rice at Kandla Port have been waiting for the last one week for the route to reopen. Tea exporters said they are flooded with orders for the premium second flush orthodox teas from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, but are unable to ship them.
India's edible oil imports increased 6.7 per cent year-on-year to nearly 13.39 lakh tonnes in May, driven mainly by higher shipments of crude soyabean oil, industry body Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said on Friday, reported news agency PTI. According to SEA data, edible oil imports rose to 13,38,936 tonnes in May 2026 from 12,54,883 tonnes in the same month last year. The increase was led by crude soyabean oil imports, which climbed to 4,93,854 tonnes from 3,98,585 tonnes a year earlier. Imports of non-edible oils more than doubled to 26,202 tonnes last month from 12,040 tonnes in May 2025. With both edible and non-edible oils taken together, India's vegetable oil imports rose 8 per cent to 13.65 lakh tonnes in May 2026 from 12.67 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period, the association said. During the first seven months of the 2025-26 oil year, total vegetable oil imports increased 12 per cent to 93.65 lakh tonnes from 83.39 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year. Edible oil imports during November 2025-May 2026 grew 13 per cent to 92.17 lakh tonnes from 81.31 lakh tonnes a year ago, while non-edible oil imports declined to 1,47,710 tonnes from 2,07,505 tonnes. SEA said edible oil imports rose in May primarily because the price premium of soyabean oil over palm oil narrowed, making soyabean oil more competitive.
The government’s wheat procurement for 2026-27 rabi marketing season (April-June) has crossed 35 million tonne (MT), highest in the last four years. As agencies wind up the Minimum Support Price (MSP) purchase operations in key producing states, the overall grain purchase so far has been 35.41 MT which exceeds the target of 34.6 MT for the season. Wheat purchases this season, which officially ends by the end of June, are 18% higher compared to 30 MT purchased in the previous marketing year (2025-26). This against the arrivals of 42.22 MT of grain across mandis in key producing states. The aim of the government purchase is to bolster stock and ensure supplies under the public distribution system. Previously, a record 43.33 MT of wheat was purchased from farmers during the 2021-22 marketing season.
The Middle East conflict has already removed 1 billion barrels of crude oil from global markets in just three months — equivalent to nearly two-and-a-half times the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve — with cumulative losses projected to approach 2 billion barrels by the end of the year even under a relatively optimistic recovery scenario, according to Rystad Energy. The disruption has shut in 11.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of production across six Gulf producers, making it the most severe oil supply disruption of the modern era, the consultancy said, warning that every additional month of conflict could erase another 350 million barrels from global supply. “Cumulative losses have now reached 1 billion barrels and are on track to nearly double by year-end under our base case,” said Aditya Saraswat, MENA Research Director at Rystad Energy.
OPEC oil output in May hit its lowest in more than two decades, a Reuters survey found, as a U.S. naval blockade cut Iran's exports and Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz slashed exports by other Gulf producers. Output by the 11-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 1.06 million barrels per day month-on-month to 16.13 million bpd, the survey found. That was the lowest monthly figure since at least 2000, according to Reuters surveys, and well below the levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when demand collapsed.
OPEC+’s latest decision to raise oil production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) is unlikely to bring meaningful relief to global markets as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Russia’s inability to meet higher production targets undermine the alliance’s efforts to boost supply, according to Rystad Energy. The producer group remains on course to unwind the first tranche of voluntary production cuts by September, but analysts say the market is increasingly facing a gap between announced production targets and actual barrels reaching consumers. The warning comes at a time when energy markets are grappling with one of the biggest supply disruptions in recent years, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut and limiting the movement of crude from the Gulf region, a critical source of global oil supplies.
India's sharp increase in gold import tariffs is fuelling a resurgence in smuggling that could exceed 100 metric tons this year, as soaring grey market margins allow smugglers to undercut banks and refiners of the precious metal, industry officials and bullion dealers said. India, the world's biggest gold market after China, more than doubled import tariffs to 15% in May to curb demand, cut the trade deficit and ease pressure on the rupee. But the move has created an opportunity for smugglers who are able to offer prices legitimate importers cannot match, they said. The grey market discount has gone beyond $200 per ounce, or more than 4%, said a Mumbai-based bullion division head at a private gold importing bank, adding that banks were unable to offer even a $10 discount, let alone one of three digits. He declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak to media. The recent resurgence in the grey market suggests illegal imports could exceed 100 tons in 2026, said another dealer who also declined to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to the media.
In a move that may possibly be a sign of upcoming measures on gold, the finance ministry has directed bullion-importing banks to furnish detailed information on gold metal loans and loans backed by gold from 2023 onwards. Despite a lower import volume of 721 tonnes compared with the previous year, India's gold import bill rose 24% to a record $71.9 billion in 2025-26. The dozen banks involved in gold imports either borrow gold from international lenders and extend it to jewellers through gold metal loans, or procure the metal from overseas banks under a consignment arrangement, making outright payments based on confirmed demand from domestic wholesale buyers.
OPEC+ approved a fourth consecutive increase in oil production targets on Sunday, even as a severe supply crisis continues to disrupt oil exports from several major producers and keeps the group’s actual output far below official targets, reported Reuters. The alliance, which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partners such as Russia, agreed to raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, reported Reuters. The increase follows similar output hikes announced for April, May and June.
The biggest oil supply shock in decades has entered its fourth month - with no resolution in sight as neither the U.S. nor Iran appears willing to budge - yet the market has settled into an eerie calm. This disconnect reflects an uncomfortable reality: the biggest drivers of today's energy market are a host of unknowns. In recent weeks, benchmark Brent crude has retreated from a four-year high of $118 a barrel, set in March, to below $95, returning to levels that sit comfortably within the range of the past two decades. This has happened even though the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most critical oil chokepoint - has remained largely shut for more than three months, disrupting flows equivalent to roughly 13% of global supply.
When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be an extraordinary event: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production, that had been shut down for a hundred days and counting. Nothing even remotely close has been attempted — ever. The oil industry doesn’t have a playbook for it; it will learn by doing. Unsurprisingly, the commodity market is deeply divided about how long it would take: oil bears believe it could be done in days and weeks, while the bulls talk about six to eight months, perhaps even a year. The most pessimistic say many wells won’t restart at all. My industry soundings are far more upbeat: When it happens, it would start as a trickle, but very quickly — in just a handful of weeks, if not days — transform into an oil flood. I’m on the side of the bears, as you may have guessed.
Gold has crossed a key milestone in the financial markets that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago. For the first time, gold has surpassed US government bonds as the leading reserve asset globally, driven by massive central bank purchases and a price rally that has nearly doubled gold’s value in just two years. Central banks now hold more gold than US government bonds or euros in their foreign exchange reserves. The share of gold in total official foreign reserves reached 27% at the end of 2025 — surpassing both the euro at 15% and US Treasuries at 22%. In other words, gold is now the single largest component of global official reserves.
The government's wheat procurement rose 17 per cent to over 35 million tonne in the 2026-27 rabi marketing season, surpassing both the target of 34.5 MT and the previous year's procurement of 30 MT, a senior food ministry official said on Wednesday. "Wheat procurement has crossed 35 million tonne so far this season. We have exceeded the target. Procurement in major producing states has been completed," the official told PTI. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies procure wheat at the minimum support price (MSP) to meet requirements under the National Food Security Act and other welfare schemes.
The United States has signalled that it wants to end the special waivers that allow countries such as India to continue buying Russian oil, a move that could have major implications for global energy markets and India-US ties. Speaking before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would like to stop extending the waivers as soon as possible because US policy continues to support sanctions on Russian oil. However, he added that the final decision rests with the US Treasury Department and will depend on the circumstances when the current waiver expires on June 17.
In a further tightening of import norms for silver, the government on Tuesday mandated that imports be routed through RBI-nominated agencies, Directorate General of Foreign Trade-approved entities and qualified jewellers authorised by the IFSCA via the India International Bullion Exchange against a valid import authorisation. The import authorisation will be issued by the DGFT. Last month, the government raised import duty on gold and silver to 15% to curb non-essential imports amid the West Asia crisis. Silver imports in April jumped 157% year-on-year to $411 million. In a notification, the DGFT said that import of silver (including silver plated with gold or platinum), unwrought or in semi-manufactured forms, or in powder form; powder, grains; and containing 99.9% or more by weight of silver, "through nominated agencies notified by the RBI, in the case of banks, by the DGFT, in case of other agencies, and by qualified jewellers as notified by the IFSCA for import through the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX), wherever allowed, shall be permitted only against a valid import authorisation issued by the DGFT".
Indian rice export prices extended gains this week on stronger demand and a rebound in the rupee from a record low, while Thai rice demand firmed as buying interest emerged from the Philippines and Africa. India's 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted this week at $337-$345 per ton, up from the last week's $336-$343. Indian 5% broken white rice was priced at $338-$344 per ton. "Demand from African buyers is improving as supplies from other origins are more expensive than those from India," said a Kolkata-based trader.
