Sebi offers a way over FPI tax rule hurdle
A U.S. Iran deal is in place for now but the next few weeks will test whether a more permanent agreement can be reached. Key U.S. and Australian economic data are due, Colombians head to the polls, and London hosts a major climate gathering.
British government borrowing jumped much more sharply than expected in May as higher inflation pushed up the cost of servicing inflation-linked debt, official figures showed on Friday in unwelcome news for the public finances.
British consumers did more shopping in May and April's sharp drop was revised up as hot weather boosted sales of summer items like fans and paddling pools, data showed on Friday, suggesting households were shrugging off inflation concerns.
The dollar strengthened in Asian trade on Friday, pinning the yen near a four-decade low as a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran hung in the balance and traders speculated further intervention may be needed to arrest a slide in the Japanese currency. The Japanese currency reversed earlier strength to trade flat against the U.S. dollar at 161.455 yen, grinding closer to its weakest level in two years, though public holidays in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan and an impending one in the U.S. kept liquidity thin.
Japan's core consumer prices rose 1.4% in May from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday. The core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, compared with economists' median estimate for a 1.4% annual gain.
British consumer confidence held steady in June but younger people turned more pessimistic about the economy and their personal financial situation against a backdrop of political uncertainty, a long-running survey showed on Friday.
Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose in April, data from the Treasury Department showed on Thursday, led by gains by the two largest holders of government dent -- Japan and the UK. Holdings of U.S. Treasuries edged higher to $9.352 trillion in April, up from $9.348 trillion in the previous month. But compared with a year earlier, Treasuries owned by foreigners were up 4%.
Argentina posted a trade surplus of $3.50 billion in May, after registering $9.54 billion in exports and $6.03 billion in imports in the month, the government's statistics office said on Thursday. The data landed well above the $2.2 billion surplus forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.
Spain's economy likely expanded by 0.5%-0.6% in the second quarter from the preceding three months, when it grew at a similar pace of 0.6% to outperform other large euro zone economies, the Bank of Spain said on Thursday.
Taiwan's central bank on Thursday raised its growth outlook for the year thanks to the AI boom, while keeping its policy interest rate steady as expected, though the decision was not unanimous due to inflation concerns. The central bank also said it needed to be a bit more hawkish.
Germany's economy will grow less than previously expected this year and next as the Iran war and a resulting energy price shock weigh on consumption and investment, the IMK economic institute said on Thursday. The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) forecast gross domestic product would expand by 0.6% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, cutting its March projections by 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points respectively.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday in Kevin Warsh‘s first meeting as chair. However, the Fed’s latest forecasts show that policymakers are becoming more concerned about inflation and are increasingly open to raising rates again if price pressures remain high.
Chaiyaporn Arunrasamee hunched over his fishing nets, overlooking the waters of the Andaman Sea, where Thailand's government is proposing an ambitious "Land Bridge" that will ferry goods between ports on opposite sides of the peninsula.
Germany's economy will grow less than previously expected this year and next as the Iran war and a resulting energy price shock weigh on consumption and investment, the IMK economic institute said on Thursday. The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) forecast gross domestic product would expand by 0.6% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, cutting its March projections by 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points respectively.
The number of people employed in German industry in 2025 fell to a 10-year low of just 6.6 million workers, a study by the German Economic Institute (IW) showed on Thursday. • The decline was not driven by rising numbers of dismissals by employers but by hesitation to refill vacancies and hire new staff • "The decline in new hires is a warning signal for future employment trends," said Luisa Kunze, labour market expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, which commissioned the IW study
Brazil's central bank cut rates at a third straight meeting on Wednesday and left its next steps open, acknowledging a tougher inflation outlook and risks from election-year fiscal stimulus. The bank's rate-setting committee, called Copom, unanimously voted to lower its benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%, a level last seen in May 2025, in line with forecasts from 41 of 45 economists polled by Reuters.
China's booming exports are emerging as a major concern for Europe, with leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) economies discussing ways to address growing trade imbalances amid fears of a new "China Shock" hitting European industry, according to news agency AP.
Nippon Steel, the world's No. 3 steelmaker, expects the American market to remain buoyant, supported by import tariffs and resilient demand, which could lift earnings at U.S. Steel beyond current forecasts, Vice Chairman Takahiro Mori said. "We are confident that U.S. Steel will be able to post profits in excess of 100 billion yen ($624 million) this year," Mori said, adding that the strong market outlook through 2027 suggested additional upside. He said U.S. Steel would generate an annual profit of 300 billion yen to 400 billion yen in the long run. Mori described U.S. conditions as highly favourable, with hot-rolled steel sheet prices above $1,200 per metric ton, more than double the level in Asia. To capitalise on the strong pricing environment, U.S. Steel resumed an idled Illinois blast furnace in March and is now running it at full capacity.
Japan is moving toward temporarily cutting its consumption tax on food to 1% in what would be the first effective reduction of its kind, further straining its already worsening finances.
This time 10 years ago, few would have predicted that Northern Ireland would be topping the United Kingdom's economic growth charts after the 2016 vote to leave the European Union.
British inflation unexpectedly held at 2.8% for May, unchanged from the 13-month low reached in April, official figures showed on Wednesday, a day before the Bank of England will announce its next interest rate decision.
Japan's exports grew for a ninth straight month in May, data showed on Wednesday, as a weaker yen, higher commodity prices and solid semiconductor demand offset the drag from major supply disruptions linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The global artificial intelligence boom has cushioned parts of the world economy against war-driven risks, enabling import-dependent nations like Japan to absorb the immediate shock to growth and trade.
apanese manufacturers' sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in June, as persistent semiconductor demand supported chemicals and machinery makers, the latest Reuters Tankan survey showed. The monthly poll, a leading indicator of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business survey, revealed that manufacturers' sentiment rose to plus-13 in June from plus-8 in May.
Argentina likely posted a trade surplus of $2 billion in May, a Reuters poll showed, as crude shipments were buoyed by high global oil prices and weak domestic demand meant exports outweighed imports.
France's economy is growing more slowly than expected after a sluggish start to the year with the Middle East conflict weighing on activity, the central bank said on Tuesday, warning the outlook was hostage to geopolitical developments.
Sunday’s memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran will come as a huge relief to a world weary of the 107-day conflict that roiled oil markets, threatened to push inflation higher, and cast a shadow over global growth and trade. Fingers crossed, the formal agreement scheduled to be signed in Geneva this Friday will pave the way for constructive negotiations and, ultimately, a durable peace.
China's economy showed increasing unevenness in May, with retail sales falling for the first time in over three years and investment slumping, while industrial output picked up pace. Tuesday's data highlighted a two-speed growth pattern in the world's second-largest economy, with factories buoyed by surprisingly resilient exports but domestic demand worsening amid a multi-year property downturn.
Pakistan could improve economic projections for 2027 after the end of the Iran war, but it is still too early to revise the budget, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters, hours after the U.S. and Iran signed a deal to end the fighting. Damaged energy infrastructure meant supply chains would take time to return to normal, after the conflict pushed inflation back into double digits, Aurangzeb said.
Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy was slowing in the face of tighter financial conditions but warned it might hike the rate again if it was needed to control inflation. Wrapping up its June policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said inflation was still too high and it would do whatever necessary to bring it down, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required."
Peru's economy expanded 3.73% in April from a year earlier, data from the government's INEI statistics agency showed on Monday, exceeding expectations as nearly all sectors posted growth. April's reading came above the 3.55% increase forecast by analysts polled by Reuters and compared with a 3.21% expansion in March.
The world economy is weathering the shock of the war in the Middle East with no signs yet of a global slowdown, but risks remain high, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday. Georgieva, who will brief G7 leaders on the global economy at a summit in France this week, welcomed the agreement by the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but warned in a new blog that an intensification of the conflict and supply disruptions posed a "clear risk to global growth."
U.S. factory production was unexpectedly unchanged in May after gains in the prior months, which some economists said were related to businesses building up inventory in anticipation of shortages and higher prices due to the war in the Middle East. Despite the flat reading in output reported by the Federal Reserve on Monday, an artificial intelligence spending boom by businesses is offering a lifeline to manufacturing, helping to offset some of the drag from import tariffs and the recent oil price shock. Business tax incentives for equipment investment are also supporting the sector.
The impact of the Iran war continues to ripple across the world economy, pushing up prices and denting the outlook for growth. The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, and inflation in the US accelerated to the fastest pace since 2023.
War in the Middle East pushed the yen to the brink of multi-decade lows and prompted the government to prop it up -- a peace deal, however, won't pull it back from the precipice. Stocks and bonds soared on Monday on news of the planned Iran-U.S. halt to a war that has inflamed global inflation expectations, particularly in energy importers like Japan. But the yen barely budged, holding above the 160 per dollar level that invited official intervention just last month.
South Korea's artificial intelligence-led semiconductor boom has yet to generate a meaningful spillover into the broader economy, even as concerns over the won and financial stability are increasing the likelihood of a Bank of Korea (BOK) rate hike next month, Nomura's senior economist said.
A growing number of Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments, pushing delinquency levels to their highest point since the years following the Great Recession and raising concerns about financial stress among a section of US consumers. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that about 13% of the nation’s total credit card balance was at least 90 days overdue during the first quarter of 2026, reported The USA Today. That is the highest level recorded since 2011, when the United States was still recovering from the financial crisis that began in 2008.
The Italian economy will grow by 0.6% this year and 0.4% in 2027, the country's central bank said on Friday, confirming its previous estimate for 2026 but trimming next year's outlook from a 0.5% projection made in early April. "Economic activity is set to be affected by weaker domestic demand, held back by the surge in energy prices and even higher geopolitical uncertainty," the Bank of Italy said, forecasting a jump in inflation this year compared with its previous estimate.
U.S. consumer sentiment bounced off record lows in early June as easing gasoline prices offered households some relief, though concerns about inflation stoked by the Middle East conflict lingered. Lower-income households led the broad improvement in sentiment reported by the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers on Friday. Gasoline prices have dropped from four-year highs over the past three weeks, according to data from motorist advocacy group AAA, as oil prices stayed below $100 a barrel despite a fragile ceasefire.
Brazil's consumer inflation accelerated more than expected in May, official data showed on Friday, breaching the top of the central bank's target range for the first time since October ahead of a key rate decision next week. Annual inflation in Latin America's largest economy rose to 4.72% in May, statistics agency IBGE said, up from 4.39% in April and above the 4.66% consensus forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.
Heavy government spending on defence and infrastructure will stop Germany from slipping into recession this year, as the war in Iran takes its toll on Europe's biggest economy and lifts inflation, the Bundesbank said on Friday. Germany’s economy has been broadly stagnant for the past three years, with a jump in spending expected to restart growth this year, only for a war-driven surge in energy prices to derail the recovery.
Germany's economic recovery is likely to proceed in small steps at best, depending on the conflict in the Middle East, and energy and commodity prices, the economy ministry said on Friday. The ministry added in its monthly report that economic momentum likely slowed noticeably in the second quarter, with industrial production expected to show only modest growth in the coming months and no upturn in labour demand anticipated even during the summer due to higher energy prices.
Consumer prices in France rose 2.8% year-on-year in May, the highest level since February 2024, statistics office INSEE said on Friday, confirming a preliminary reading published last month. The EU-harmonised inflation rate in the bloc's second biggest economy continued accelerating in May, after a 2.5% increase in April.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said India is expected to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with GDP growth projected at around 7% over the medium term, while cautioning that the responsibility for correcting global economic imbalances should not fall disproportionately on developing nations. Addressing the Global Convergence for Growth Summit virtually, chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron, Sitharaman joined leaders from G7 nations and major emerging economies to discuss measures to support balanced global growth through a more effective international economic framework.
Inside a new Bangladeshi glass factory with a production floor nearly twice the size of a soccer field, machinery sits wrapped in tarpaulins. At a neighboring steel mill, construction has slowed and production has yet to begin. The facilities, at a sprawling complex near Dhaka, were supposed to symbolize Bangladesh’s economic boom and shift to heavy industry, all built on plentiful liquefied natural gas. Instead, they’ve become a stark illustration of how a shortage of energy is threatening the country’s growth, just as a new democratically elected government led by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman tries to turn the country’s fortunes around.
Consumer prices in France rose 2.8% year-on-year in May, the highest level since February 2024, statistics office INSEE said on Friday, confirming a preliminary reading published last month. The EU-harmonised inflation rate in the bloc's second biggest economy continued accelerating in May, after a 2.5% increase in April.
Britain's economy contracted by 0.1% in April, its first monthly drop since August as the Iran war's cancellation of Formula 1 Grand Prix races and other Gulf sporting events delivered a blow to the British entertainment industry. Friday's data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the first clear signs of an impact from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in terms of British economic growth.
German inflation eased slightly to 2.7% in May, the federal statistics office said on Friday, confirming preliminary data. Inflation, or the gain in consumer prices harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, stood at 2.9% year-on-year in April.
Japan's core consumer inflation likely held steady in May at roughly the previous month's pace due to end of government fuel subsidies, leaving inflation below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a fourth month, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. Here are a few details: • The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which includes energy items but excludes fresh food prices, is expected to have risen 1.4% in May from a year earlier, according to a poll of 16 economists, unchanged from April when it marked the slowest increase since March 2022.
New Zealand's manufacturing activity contracted slightly in May, slipping back into negative territory after seven months of expansion, as businesses remained concerned about weak demand and global economic pressures. The Bank of New Zealand-Business NZ's seasonally adjusted Performance of Manufacturing Index fell to 49.9 in May from 50.4 in April and 52.8 in March.
Argentina recorded slower inflation in May for the second month in a row, below analyst forecasts, even as the 12-month figure increased, data from national statistics agency INDEC showed on Thursday. May's inflation rate of 2.1% was down from 2.6% registered in April and came slightly under analyst expectations of 2.3%.
The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the euro zone on Thursday and raised its expectation for inflation because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, adding that the economic situation could worsen if high energy prices persisted. In its regular report on the economy of the 21 countries that share the euro currency, the IMF said economic growth this year would be 0.9%, down from 1.1% forecast in April while inflation would be 2.8%, up from 2.6% forecast in April.
Bangladesh unveiled a 9.38 trillion taka ($77 billion) national budget on Thursday, targeting 6.5% economic growth and 7.5% inflation as the government seeks to revive an economy strained by high prices, weak investment and financial sector fragility. The budget, for the fiscal year beginning in July, marks a political and economic turning point after the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024.
U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, leading to the largest annual gain in 3-1/2 years as the Middle East conflict boosted the cost of energy products, providing more evidence that inflation pressures were building up. The report from the Labor Department on Thursday and continued labor market resilience amid relatively low layoffs reinforced economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged into 2027 and for the Federal Open Market Committee to ditch its easing bias at next week's policy meeting.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, offering insights into how inflationary pressures have moved across food, shelter, and other areas of the economy. The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 4.2% in May 2026, marking its highest level since April 2023, from 3.8% in April and in line with market expectations. This represents the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline inflation, with energy costs jumping 23.5% vs 17.9% in April, due to the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran. Gasoline prices soared 40.5%, after a 28.4% gain.
The United States has become the world's largest oil exporter, upending a decades-old order long dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, a shift that tightens American companies' grip on energy markets as Washington's war with Iran reshapes global energy trade. America's ascendancy to the top spot marks a stunning reversal for a country that was dependent on Middle Eastern oil for decades and suffered from an oil embargo imposed by some OPEC members in 1973 to retaliate against U.S. support for Israel.
Japanese business sentiment soured in April-June for the first time in four quarters, a government survey showed on Thursday, a sign of growing economic pain from the Middle East conflict. An index measuring big companies' sentiment fell to -0.5% point in the second quarter following a reading of +4.4 points in January-March, the survey showed.
Mexico's financial system remains solid and can handle adverse situations, the central bank said on Wednesday, while highlighting geopolitical conflicts as issues to monitor. Risks in the system have increased marginally since the prior stability report published in December, it said, although the system has strong capital and liquidity levels and would be able to withstand shocks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told top officials on Wednesday that there are grounds to expect a cut in the central bank's key interest rate when it meets next week, and praised the monetary policy of central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, who was absent from the meeting due to illness. Nabiullina has cancelled two public appearances in the past week, including at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russia’s biggest business conference, often dubbed the “Russian Davos.”
Italian industrial output unexpectedly rose in April from the previous month, data showed on Wednesday, posting a 0.5% increase that marked the third gain in a row for a manufacturing sector showing signs of emerging from a long-runnng slump. Industrial output rose 0.6% rise in March, amid surging energy costs following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that began at the end of February.
Germany's economy is likely to slip into a technical recession this year as an energy price shock triggered by the war in Iran derails a fragile recovery, the DIW economic institute said on Wednesday, cutting its 2026 growth forecast in half. DIW Berlin now expects Europe's largest economy to grow by 0.5% this year and 0.8% in 2027, around half a percentage point lower than forecast in spring.
China's producer prices rose for a third straight month in May to the highest since July 2022, while consumer prices stayed elevated as global energy prices piled cost pressures on manufacturers and drove up costs of living for households. Cost pressures from the Iran war could squeeze corporate profits and further subdue domestic consumption, although global AI-related demand provided a boost for some sectors.
China's exports picked up pace in May, rising 19.4% from a year earlier, its customs agency said Tuesday, as technology-related shipments remained robust despite impacts from the Iran war. The stronger than expected performance was an improvement from April's 14.1% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase. Imports in May jumped 27.4%, also at a faster pace compared with April's 25.3% Y-o-Y expansion.
The US trade deficit shrank slightly in April, government data showed Tuesday, bolstered by energy exports on a supply crunch following war in the Middle East. The overall trade gap narrowed 1.2 percent to $55.9 billion, said the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal had expected a $56.1 billion figure.
Norway's annual core inflation rate rose unexpectedly in May, Statistics Norway (SSB) data showed on Wednesday, supporting expectations interest rates could increase further this year. Core inflation, which strips out changing energy prices and taxes, stood at 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in April, and above the 3.2% expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. Norges Bank had expected core inflation of 3.3%. Norway's currency, the crown, strengthened to 10.96 against the euro by 0609 GMT, from 11.00 ahead of the data release.
U.S. consumer inflation likely increased at its fastest pace in three years in May as the Middle East conflict raised prices of energy products, which would provide more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year. The anticipated third straight month of strong year-on-year Consumer Price Index readings from the Labor Department on Wednesday is expected to highlight mounting pressure on households as evidence suggests more consumers are dipping into savings to finance their spending. Inflation is likely to outpace wage growth in May for a second straight month, a development that could weigh on overall economic growth.
Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated in May at the fastest pace in three years as price pressures from the Middle East war broadened, adding to the case for further interest rate hikes by the central bank. The Bank of Japan meets next week and is expected to deliver its first interest rate hike since December to cope with mounting inflationary pressures from a weak yen and the war-induced energy shock.
U.S. small-business sentiment fell in May and the share of owners planning to raise prices over the next three months increased to the highest level in nearly four years, suggesting inflation could remain elevated for a while. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index slipped 0.6 to 95.3 last month, falling further below its 52-year average of 98.0. The survey's uncertainty index rose three points to 91. It is running well above its historical average of 68.
German industrial production rose less than expected in April and economists said the outlook for Europe's largest economy remains weak, despite an unexpected increase in exports. Industrial production rose by 0.4% in April compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.5% rise. It was the first monthly increase since the start of the Iran war, but that was no cause for optimism, Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said.
German exports rose unexpectedly by 0.9% in April compared with the previous month, data from the federal statistics office showed on Tuesday. The result compared with a forecast for a 0.5% decrease in a Reuters poll. The statistics office publishes more detailed economic data on its website.
The Bank of Japan will consider maintaining the current pace of bond purchases beyond next fiscal year, sources said, pausing a taper process that would mark a turning point in its quantitative tightening (QT) plan. But the decision could be a close call as the nine-member board is seen as split between those who want to focus on soothing investor nerves and others who see the need to steadily slow purchases to reduce the BOJ's large balance sheet, they said.
South Korea's economy grew in the first quarter at a stronger pace than previously estimated in April, revised central bank data showed on Tuesday. Gross domestic product grew 1.8% in the January-March quarter from the preceding three months, faster than the 1.7% increase estimated earlier, according to the Bank of Korea.
The Confederation of British Industry cut its forecast for the country's economic growth on Tuesday and predicted unemployment would rise to its highest in more than a decade as the Iran war pushes up energy prices and squeezes living standards. Consumer price inflation looks set to peak at 3.7% in the first quarter of next year, up from 2.8% in April and similar to the rise predicted by the Bank of England.
The International Monetary Fund's Executive Board approved reviews of Papua New Guinea's lending arrangements, unlocking about $163 million in combined disbursements, the fund said on Monday. • The Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility arrangements were approved in 2023, to address a protracted balance of payments problem that caused foreign exchange shortages.
Vietnam will lean towards expansionary fiscal policies to meet the government's economic growth target, with the room narrowing for monetary policy, the country's deputy central bank governor Pham Thanh Ha was cited by state media as saying on on Monday.
Japan's economy lost momentum in the January-March quarter from the previous three months on sluggish capital expenditure, revised gross domestic product data showed on Monday, pointing to challenges ahead due to the Middle East conflict.
The American labour market proved strong in May, with the economy adding 172,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Global oil inventories are running dangerously low as a deal to re-open tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has proven elusive, and industry executives and analysts warn there could be another oil price shock in the coming weeks, severe enough to upset broader financial markets.
Canadian economic activity expanded at a faster pace in May and inflation pressures heated up, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed on Friday. The seasonally adjusted index rose to 58.2 from 57.7 in April, marking the highest level since September.
Canada's economy added 87,800 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in May, data showed on Friday, defying widespread expectations of only modest employment growth and showing some resilience despite signs of softer economic growth.
The World Trade Organization said on Friday there were signs global merchandise trade growth may be starting to slow, though it had shown resilience in the first half of 2026 in the face of widespread disruption sparked by the Middle East conflict.
Italy's economy will grow by 0.7% this year, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Friday, trimming a previous forecast of 0.8% made in December. In its twice-yearly economic outlook, ISTAT said gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone's third-largest economy would expand by 0.7% also in 2027.
Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves are nearing the government's $18 billion target for FY26, but a widening trade deficit, mounting external payment obligations and pressure on the rupee are raising concerns about the country's economic stability, PTI reported.
U.S. employment growth likely moderated in May after two straight months of strong gains, but the pace would probably remain consistent with stable labor market conditions. Economists expected the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday to confirm that the Middle East conflict, which has stoked inflation through a surge in oil prices, was yet to have material impact on the jobs market.
The European Central Bank is expected to hike interest rates next week, becoming the first of the biggest central banks to do so since the Iran war unleashed an energy crisis that is stoking inflationary pressures in the euro zone. But with the economy of the 21-country bloc weaker than during Europe's previous energy crisis in 2022, policymakers are walking a tightrope as they try to contain rising prices without exacerbating the growth hit from the crisis.
Japan's real wages climbed 1.9% in April from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive monthly gain, as higher special payments boosted overall earnings and improved household purchasing power. Here are a few details: • The Bank of Japan, which will next review its interest rates on June 15 and 16, considers steady rises in wages and prices as a prerequisite for another hike. The Japanese central bank is expected to raise interest rates this month unless a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict roils markets, sources told Reuters.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Thursday said that while she believes AI over a five- to 10-year window could be a deflationary force, the effect is "not a pressing issue" for monetary policy which operates on a 12-month horizon. Daly, at a Bloomberg Tech event in San Francisco, also said she also does not think that AI is behind the current rise in inflation, which being driven by higher tariffs and, more recently, by higher energy and food prices since the start of Iran war.
Mexico's economy could grow more than the OECD's latest forecast, Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora said in an interview with newspaper Milenio published late on Wednesday, arguing that a planned surge in public investment and government measures to contain inflation would support activity. • The OECD now expects Mexico's economy to expand 0.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, though it warned that growth would be held back by trade tariffs, slower U.S. growth, global uncertainty and fiscal consolidation that would keep public investment contained.
Activity in the US services sector expanded in May, according to survey data released Wednesday, beating expectations and continuing to show strong performance despite respondents citing rising cost pressures.
Indonesia's parliament on Thursday passed sweeping legislation that places further emphasis on Bank Indonesia supporting economic growth, while empowering lawmakers to evaluate independent financial regulators and the central bank. Parliament passed the bill by acclamation, with support from all parties, according to the deputy speaker, Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, who led Thursday's plenary session.
Australia's balance on goods trade swung back into surplus in April after a surprise deficit the month before, data showed on Thursday, as a rebound in resource exports helped offset a surge in fuel imports. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the balance on goods recorded a surplus of A$1.8 billion ($1.28 billion) in April, bang in line with market forecasts. March had seen the first deficit since 2017 at A$1.0 billion.
Brazil's trade surplus reached $7.8 billion in May, official data showed on Wednesday, above market expectations, as higher prices drove export growth at a faster pace than imports.
After unleashing 'Epic Fury' on Iran, the United States has launched another front to step up its pressure on the country. The US, on Tuesday, imposed sanctions on Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Nobitex, and several of its senior executives, accusing the platform of helping the Iranian government and sanctioned entities bypass Western restrictions.
Spain's service sector activity stabilised in May as activity and sales returned to growth after April's decline, a business survey showed on Wednesday. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector rose to 50.1 in May from 47.9 in April, creeping back above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.
The global economic outlook hinges on how long the war in the Middle East lasts, with recession in some countries and sharply higher inflation a real possibility if it drags on into next year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned on Wednesday. If the conflict proves short-lived, Gulf oil and gas production could gradually return to pre-crisis levels from the third quarter with shortages confined to Asia and cushioned by strategic reserves and shipments from other producers.
Russia's services sector contracted in May at its quickest pace since September as weaker demand drove steeper falls in new orders and output, a business survey showed on Wednesday. The S&P Global Russia Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 48.7 in May from 49.7 in April, dropping deeper below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.
China's services activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in May, helped by stronger growth in new business and a rebound in overseas demand, though rising cost pressures weighed on firms, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday. The RatingDog China General Services Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 54.4 in May from 52.6 in April, staying above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction.
Australia's economy slowed in the March quarter as strength in business investment was offset by a drag from trade, data showed on Wednesday, while higher borrowing costs and rising petrol prices cooled consumer demand. The pullback is likely to worsen as the Middle East conflict and rapid-fire policy tightening have sent household spending falling, house prices flatlining and the unemployment rate edging higher.
Japan's services sector ground to a halt in May after more than a year of expansion, as surging costs linked to the Middle East war dampened service demand and led to a 12-year high in output price inflation, a private survey showed on Tuesday. • The S&P Global final Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in May from 51.0 in April, marking the end of a 13-month expansion streak. Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in activity, while those below point to a contraction.
U.S. job openings increased by the most in five years in April, but the surge likely overstates the labor market's health, as hiring declined against the backdrop of economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran war. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, from the Labor Department on Tuesday also showed resignations dropped to the lowest level in nearly six years in April, a sign of lack of confidence in the jobs market.
The largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking U.S. software stocks clocked the biggest single-day buy-in by retail investors on record on Monday, data from Vanda Research showed. Software stocks have largely recovered their losses from earlier this year when fears of industry-wide disruptions due to the rise of AI gripped the sector, though volatility still persists.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, pressed about statistics showing the country is in a technical recession, on Tuesday told reporters that as the government pressed ahead with reforms "the data will be uneven". He continued: "We see some weakness, in part because of clear decisions made by the government." These included cutting back immigration and curbing government spending, he said.
US manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in four years in May. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0, its highest level since May 2022, marking the fifth straight month of expansion. The stronger-than-expected growth suggests US factories are holding up well regardless of higher costs, supply chain disruptions and ongoing economic uncertainty.
Australian government spending was flat in the first quarter, data showed on Tuesday, offering no impetus to economic growth early in the year after a run of strong outcomes. Spending on operational items fell 0.2% in the March quarter from the previous quarter to an inflation-adjusted A$159.3 billion ($114.09 billion), the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported.
Australia's net trade proved to be a major drag on the economy in the first quarter as imports of data centre equipment and fuel boomed, while government spending added nothing to economic growth.
South Korea's consumer inflation quickened in May to a more than two-year high, exceeding market expectations on high oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, supporting the case for monetary tightening as early as next month.
The Bank of Canada on Monday cautioned against putting too much weight on recent GDP data which showed two consecutive quarters of decline on an annualized basis. Senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said while two quarters of annualized contraction in GDP did meet one definition of a recession, the April advance estimate showed the economy most likely rebounded.
Canada's manufacturing sector expanded for a second straight month in May as the potential for higher prices and product shortages due to the war in the Middle East likely boosted client demand, data showed on Monday.
The Swiss economy grew by 0.4% in the first three months of 2026, the government said on Monday, helped by a recovery in the manufacturing sector as the burden of U.S. tariffs eased. The figure was an acceleration from the 0.2% rate at the end of 2025 and was in line with the long-term Swiss quarterly growth rate.
Growth in euro zone manufacturing lost momentum in May as demand for goods stagnated and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East war pushed input costs to their highest in four years, a survey showed on Monday.
Germany's manufacturing sector stalled in May as waning demand and soaring costs linked to the war in the Middle East weighed on activity, a business survey showed on Monday. The S&P Global Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.1 in May from 51.4 in April, a survey by S&P Global showed, holding above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.
Euro zone consumers kept steady or lowered their inflation expectations in April, a hopeful sign for policymakers that crucial medium-term price bets are not signalling any oversized shift away from the target, an ECB survey showed on Monday.
Cost pressures in Italy's manufacturing sector rose for a fifth month running in May, fuelled by the conflict in the Middle East, a survey showed on Monday. The measure of input cost inflation in the Italian S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) accelerated to 76.5 from 75.4 in April, the highest reading since May 2022.
Spain's manufacturing sector expanded modestly in May, at a slightly slower pace than in April, as disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict worsened supply delays, raised costs and weighed on demand, a business survey showed on Monday.
Federal Reserve officials continued on Friday to signal the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates in the future if the war in the Middle East leads to a persistent increase in already-high inflation. The potential shift in the monetary policy outlook has even been embraced by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, one of the central bank's most dovish policymakers. Bowman told a conference in Iceland on Friday that the war and its resulting energy shock could change her view on the outlook for rates.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods contracted more than expected in April as a surge in exports blunted rising imports, but economists cautioned the trend was unlikely to be sustainable, with businesses ramping up investment in artificial intelligence. The advance report from the Commerce Department on Friday suggested the three-month U.S.-backed war with Iran, which has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, had yet to have a significant impact on the nation's trade flows. The artificial intelligence spending boom is largely dependent on imports, including computer chips.
Brazil's economy rebounded in the first three months of 2026, supported by household consumption and stronger investment, against a backdrop of a tight labour market and government stimulus that has clouded the outlook for interest rate cuts. Latin America's largest economy expanded 1.1% from the prior quarter, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday, slightly above the 1.0% growth expected in a Reuters poll.
Inflation in the euro zone's four largest economies hovered above the European Central Bank's 2% target for a third straight month in May, preliminary data showed on Friday, as a rise in fuel costs triggered by the Iran war began to feed through to other prices. Readings from France, Italy, Spain and Germany are likely to cement the case for a rate hike from the European Central Bank next month and stoke some worries about whether high inflation is beginning to take root in the euro zone.
Italy's economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter from the previous three months, boosted by strong exports, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Friday, revising up a previous printout pointing to a 0.2% expansion. The main effects of the conflict in Iran, which began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28, are expected to be felt from the second quarter.
Japanese authorities spent 11.7 trillion yen ($73.5 billion) intervening in foreign exchange markets over the past month to support the yen, but with only limited effect as the currency hovers near the same levels that prompted Tokyo to act. Ministry of Finance data released on Friday confirmed traders' suspicions that officials entered the market at the turn of the month, likely on multiple occasions during Japan's Golden Week holidays, when market liquidity was thin.
Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said on Friday his economic reforms stabilised the country and revived investor confidence, despite a steep cost-of-living squeeze on households three years into his presidency. Tinubu, who is seeking re-election in January, cited a near fivefold surge in the stock market to a record 250,000 points, rising market capitalisation and increased infrastructure spending, including more than 2,700 km (1,678 miles) of roads under construction or rehabilitation, and ongoing rail upgrades.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that allowing inflation to run above the central bank's 2% target is justified given the uncertainty about the impact of the Iran war on the economy and the weak pace of growth. "But that tolerance would weaken if signs of second-round effects begin to emerge," Bailey said, referring to longer-term inflation pressures, in a speech at a conference in Reykjavik organised by Iceland's central bank.
Italian EU-harmonised consumer prices (HICP) rose by 0.4% in May from the month before, with the annual inflation rate surging to 3.3% from 2.8% in April amid increasing energy costs due to turmoil in the Middle East, preliminary data showed on Friday. The reading was slightly above a median forecast in a Reuters survey of 17 analysts which pointed to an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year rise of 3.2%.
Inflation fell in four key German states in May, preliminary data showed on Friday, suggesting Germany's national inflation rate could ease this month despite higher energy prices due to the Iran war. In Bavaria, the inflation rate fell to 2.6% in May from 2.9% in April. In North Rhine-Westphalia, it decreased to 2.4% from 2.7%, in Baden-Wuerttemberg to 2.4% from 2.6% and in Lower Saxony it fell to 2.7% from 3.0%.
Taiwan's tech-driven economy is expected to grow at its fastest pace in 16 years in 2026, the government statistics agency said on Friday, thanks to booming demand for artificial intelligence-related technologies. Gross domestic product is now expected to be 9.64% higher than a year earlier, the agency said, the quickest pace since 10.25% was recorded in 2010 and revising up the 7.71% forecast it issued in February.
Italy's unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.1% in April and a net 123,000 jobs were created during the month, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported on Friday. • The jobless rate was below a median forecast of 5.3% in a Reuters poll of eight analysts, following a 5.2% rate in March.
Indonesia's annual inflation rate likely accelerated in May to 2.97%, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, closer to the upper end of the central bank's target range amid rising prices of non-subsidised fuel, airfares and cooking oil. Following are details from the survey for Indonesia's inflation rate in May, its trade performance in April and context about the economic data:
